Why Intelligence Fails

In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and ...

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Author: Robert Jervis

Publisher: Cornell University Press

ISBN: 9780801457616

Category: Political Science

Page: 248

View: 842

The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations—analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind—were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.

Why Secret Intelligence Fails

While examining the causes of intelligence failures, Turner also explores intelligence as a critical governmental activity, making the book an excellent primer on secret intelligence.

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Author: Michael A. Turner

Publisher: Potomac Books, Inc.

ISBN: 9781612343075

Category: Political Science

Page: 217

View: 691

Michael Turner argues that the root causes of failures in American intelligence can be found in the way it is organized and in the intelligence process itself. Intelligence that has gone awry affects national decision making and, ultimately, American national security. Intelligence officials are reluctant to talk about intelligence successes, claiming "the secret of our success is the secret of our success." But these officials also shy away from talking about failures, largely because doing so would expose the failings of American intelligence and have an impact on policy consumers who may become more reluctant to accept and act on the intelligence they receive. Rather than focusing on case studies, the book takes a holistic approach, beginning with structural issues and all dysfunctions that emanate from them. Turner explores each step of the intelligence cycle--priority setting, intelligence collection, analysis, production, and dissemination--to identify the "inflection points" within each stage that contribute to intelligence failures. Finally, he examines a variety of plans that, if implemented, would reduce the likelihood of intelligence failures. While examining the causes of intelligence failures, Turner also explores intelligence as a critical governmental activity, making the book an excellent primer on secret intelligence. Turner writes in jargon-free prose for the informed reader interested in foreign policy and national security policy matters and brings enough depth to his subject that even experts will find this a must-read.

Strategic Warning Intelligence

“Reports, Politics, and Intelligence Failures: The Case of Iraq.” Journal of
Strategic Studies 29, no. 1 (February 2006): 3–52. ———. System Effects:
Complexity in Political and Social Life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press,
1997. ———.

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Author: John A. Gentry

Publisher: Georgetown University Press

ISBN: 9781626166554

Category: Political Science

Page: 296

View: 353

John A. Gentry and Joseph S. Gordon update our understanding of strategic warning intelligence analysis for the twenty-first century. Strategic warning—the process of long-range analysis to alert senior leaders to trending threats and opportunities that require action—is a critical intelligence function. It also is frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. Gentry and Gordon draw on both their practitioner and academic backgrounds to present a history of the strategic warning function in the US intelligence community. In doing so, they outline the capabilities of analytic methods, explain why strategic warning analysis is so hard, and discuss the special challenges strategic warning encounters from senior decision-makers. They also compare how strategic warning functions in other countries, evaluate why the United States has in recent years emphasized current intelligence instead of strategic warning, and recommend warning-related structural and procedural improvements in the US intelligence community. The authors examine historical case studies, including postmortems of warning failures, to provide examples of the analytic points they make. Strategic Warning Intelligence will interest scholars and practitioners and will be an ideal teaching text for intermediate and advanced students.

Military Strategy Joint Operations and Airpower

Robert Jervis, Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and
the Iraq War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2010), 145–48; Michael V.
Hayden, Playing to the Edge: American Intelligence in the Age of Terror (New
York: ...

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Author: Ryan Burke

Publisher: Georgetown University Press

ISBN: 9781626166233

Category: Political Science

Page: 344

View: 571

An ideal textbook for classes on modern airpower and joint operations.

Researching National Security Intelligence

Jervis, Why Intelligence Fails; Erik J. Dahl, Intelligence and Surprise Attack:
Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond (Washington, DC:
Georgetown University Press, 2013); James J. Wirtz, Understanding Intelligence
Failure: ...

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Author: Stephen Coulthart

Publisher: Georgetown University Press

ISBN: 9781626167049

Category: Political Science

Page: 272

View: 967

Researchers in the rapidly growing field of intelligence studies face unique and difficult challenges ranging from finding and accessing data on secret activities, to sorting through the politics of intelligence successes and failures, to making sense of complex socio-organizational or psychological phenomena. The contributing authors to Researching National Security Intelligence survey the state of the field and demonstrate how incorporating multiple disciplines helps to generate high-quality, policy-relevant research. Following this approach, the volume provides a conceptual, empirical, and methodological toolkit for scholars and students informed by many disciplines: history, political science, public administration, psychology, communications, and journalism. This collection of essays written by an international group of scholars and practitioners propels intelligence studies forward by demonstrating its growing depth, by suggesting new pathways to the creation of knowledge, and by identifying how scholarship can enhance practice and accountability.

Studies in Intelligence

Why Secret Intelligence Fails . Dulles , VA : Potomac Books , Inc. , 2005. 217
pages , endnotes , bibliography , glossary , index . Michael Turner , a former CIA
analyst and now professor of international affairs at Alliant International
University ...

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Author:

Publisher:

ISBN: UCBK:C089052296

Category: Intelligence service

Page:

View: 755

Archology or the Science of government

If the intelligence fails of apprehending the real objects of existence , i . e . , the
real good and welfare of the subjects of government , disaster must follow . If the
reason does not point out correctly the means to be used , and the actions to be ...

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Author: S. V. BLAKESLEE

Publisher:

ISBN: BL:A0022133686

Category:

Page: 164

View: 847

A Rand Note

It matters little that an intelligence operation produces correct and timely
information if the government fails to use or act on it . The study of intelligence
failure must include successful deception . Unfortunately , no widely accepted
normative ...

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Author:

Publisher:

ISBN: OSU:32435065462277

Category:

Page:

View: 684

German Strategic Deception in the 1930s

It matters little that an intelligence operation produces correct and timely
information if the government fails to use or act on it . The study of intelligence
failure must include successful deception . Unfortunately , no widely accepted
normative ...

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Author: Michael Mihalka

Publisher:

ISBN: IND:39000001900047

Category: Deception

Page: 116

View: 894

The People s Farm and Stock Cyclopedia

... while the other is surrounded with evidences of failure , and is constantly
complaining of the hardness of a farmer's lot . ... of good minds , industrious
habits , and more than average intelligence fail as farmers ; and the difference
between the ...

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Author: Waldo Franklin Brown

Publisher:

ISBN: UIUC:30112067904455

Category: Agriculture

Page: 1244

View: 660

Key Moments in Espionage

-The South's fatal miscalculation.-The greatest US intelligence failure of all time.-Andrei Tupolev and the explosion of the Konkordski.-The U-2 incident and the capture of Gary Powers.-The rise and fall of Sicily's Cosa Nostra.

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Author: Piper Bayard

Publisher:

ISBN: 099156927X

Category:

Page: 250

View: 520

With the voice of over forty-five years of experience in the Intelligence Community, Bayard & Holmes explore key moments in the history of espionage.-The rise of spy ships.-How torpedo boats faced the might of the Soviet Union.-A blow-by-blow of the USS Liberty incident.-The North Korean capture of the USS Pueblo and her crew.-Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, and the failed Operation Barbarossa.-The South's fatal miscalculation.-The greatest US intelligence failure of all time.-Andrei Tupolev and the explosion of the Konkordski.-The U-2 incident and the capture of Gary Powers.-The rise and fall of Sicily's Cosa Nostra.-How China spanked Vietnam.-Vladimir Putin, the living legacy of the Cold War.That which has gone before is happening now. That which is happening now has gone before. Thus is the nature of that paradox we call "history."

Journals and Appendices

Of the six schools showing a percentage of passes less than 50 , I attribute the
failure in the result of three of them partly ... or means to rouse their slumbering
intelligence , fails to a very serious extent in fulfilling the purposes of his
profession .

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Author: New Zealand. Parliament. House of Representatives

Publisher:

ISBN: CHI:096187696

Category:

Page:

View: 175

Appendix to the Journals of the House of Representatives of New Zealand

Of the six schools showing a percentage of passes less than 50 , I attribute the
failure in the result of three of them partly ... or means to rouse their slumbering
intelligence , fails to a very serious extent in fulfilling the purposes of his
profession .

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Author: New Zealand. Parliament. House of Representatives

Publisher:

ISBN: UCAL:C2686174

Category: New Zealand

Page:

View: 256

The Uses and Nonuses of Intelligence

The blame for this failure , as for many others at that time , was laid at the door of
the Israeli Military Intelligence ( MI ) . Eight years later I started working as an
analyst for the Israeli Ministry of Defense at the Center for Military Analyses (
CEMA ) ...

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Author: Amos Kovacs

Publisher:

ISBN: STANFORD:36105134467211

Category: Military intelligence

Page: 61

View: 994

The War on Truth

In this context , if structural deficiencies are not the principal cause of past
intelligence failures , what is the cause ? A well - documented answer to this
question is provided by US intelligence expert Loch K . Johnson — former
assistant to ...

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Author: Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

Publisher:

ISBN: PSU:000056891706

Category: Intelligence service

Page: 459

View: 966

Author of the acclaimed The War on Freedom widens the discussion of the inconsistencies and contradictions in the government's official version of 9/11 and US policy toward terrorism.

An Annotated Bibliography of the Open Literature on Deception

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Author: Zell Stanley

Publisher:

ISBN: STANFORD:36105043934160

Category: Arms control

Page: 129

View: 430

Deception, its significance in peacetime, in war, and in war avoidance, and how to counter deception, are topics of a widening public literature. This bibliography of open literature on detection in the English language includes sections on: (1) arms control and deception; (2) behavior of targets of deception; (3) bibliographies on deception; (4) China: military and political deception; (5) countering deception; (6) general deception studies; (7) historical studies; (8) human deception; (9) interspecie deception; (10) surprise attack and deception; (11) Soviet military deception; and (12) Soviet political deception. An author index is included.

Conflict Quarterly

If surprise is able to take different forms , so too can intelligence failures . The
inability to recognize this point has made the concept of an intelligence failure
more of a hinderance than a help in diagnosing cases of surprise . Mark
Lowenthal ...

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Author:

Publisher:

ISBN: UCAL:B4953479

Category: International relations

Page:

View: 955

Historical Dictionary of United States Intelligence

This second edition covers the history of United States intelligence, and includes several key features: Chronology Introductory essay Appendixes Bibliography Over 600 cross-referenced entries on key events, issues, people, operations, laws ...

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Author: Michael A. Turner

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

ISBN: 9780810878907

Category: Political Science

Page: 422

View: 111

While the United States has had some kind of intelligence capability throughout its history, its intelligence apparatus is young, dating only to the period immediately after World War II. Yet, in that short a time, it has undergone enormous changes—from the labor-intensive espionage and covert action establishment of the 1950s to a modern enterprise that relies heavily on electronic data, technology, satellites, airborne collection platforms, and unmanned aerial vehicles, to name a few. This second edition covers the history of United States intelligence, and includes several key features: Chronology Introductory essay Appendixes Bibliography Over 600 cross-referenced entries on key events, issues, people, operations, laws, regulations This book is an excellent access point for members of the intelligence community; students, scholars, and historians; legal experts; and general readers wanting to know more about the history of U.S. intelligence.

Political Science Quarterly

Figure 2 shows the 70 - year evolution of the PDB - based policymaker and
intelligence community relationship , as ... 59 Robert Jervis , Why Intelligence
Fails : Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War ( Ithaca , NY :
Cornell ...

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Author:

Publisher:

ISBN: OSU:32435086558822

Category: Social sciences

Page:

View: 718

Vols. 4-38, 40-41 include Record of political events, Oct. 1, 1888-Dec. 31, 1925 (issued as a separately paged supplement to no. 3 of v. 31-38 and to no. 1 of v. 40)

The U S Intelligence Community

( Many intelligence professionals , especially those in the CIA ' S DDO and its
Counterintelligence Staff , feel that any publicized action or operation is a failure .
) When U . S . intelligence fails to predict world events such as the Iranian
revolution ...

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Author: Stafford T. Thomas

Publisher: University Press of Amer

ISBN: UVA:X000689310

Category: Political Science

Page: 123

View: 136

A comprehensive descriptive analysis of the history, structures, functions, and problems of the U.S. intelligence community.